WEEK 1 · 16 GAMES LOCKED IN

WE NEVER
PUNT.

We pick every NFL game and grade every result in public. 1070-540-5 over six seasons, every loss still on the page. The picks are free and post before kickoff. Nothing here gets deleted.

SEE EVERY RESULT THE EDGE + PRO TOOLS →

1070-540-5

ALL-TIME RECORD

66.5%

SU ACCURACY

1,615

GRADED PICKS

PICK OF THE WEEKA+-TIER

THIS WEEK'S GAMES

CLICK ANY GAME FOR FULL BREAKDOWN

PERFORMANCE BY TIER

ALL-TIME STRAIGHT-UP ACCURACY · BARS MEASURED FROM THE 50% COIN FLIP, NOT FROM ZERO

83.7%

S

72-14

75.1%

A+

151-50

68.0%

A

68-32

66.3%

B

550-280

58.3%

THE EDGE

WHY SUBSCRIBERS STAY

Tiered Confidence

Not every pick is equal. S-tier is our highest conviction on the outcome. Note that a higher tier means a higher hit rate, not a bigger betting edge. We stake every play the same.

The Edge

Each week our model flags the Edge, the games it would actually bet, with unit sizing. A proven, profitable strategy since 2020, every pick on the public record. (Past results, not financial advice.)

Public Ledger

Go look. Every loss is right there in the table. We don't delete bad weeks. The 2020-2025 rows are a walk-forward backtest reconstructed in May 2026; from Week 1 2026 every pick is timestamped before kickoff.

SEE WHAT PRO INCLUDES →

POWER RANKINGS

2025 SEASON · FULL 32-TEAM RANKINGS →

#1

LAR

+0.206

NET EPA/PLAY

#2

+0.205

NET EPA/PLAY

#3

BUF

+0.152

NET EPA/PLAY

#4

SEA

+0.150

NET EPA/PLAY

#5

RECENT PICKS

FULL LEDGER ON RESULTS PAGE

Week	Pick	Tier	Spread	Result	ATS
W18	PIT	C	+4.5	W	✓
W18	PHI	A+	-3.0	L	✗
W18	BUF	S	-12.5	W	✓
W18	NE	A	-14.0	W	✓
W18	DEN	A	-14.5	W	✓

VIEW FULL RESULTS →

BEST PICKS

HIGHEST-CONFIDENCE WINS

KC WIN

W6 · 2023 · S TIER

86%

WON BY 11

KC WIN

W3 · 2023 · S TIER

86%

WON BY 31

KC WIN

W17 · 2022 · S TIER

86%

WON BY 3

HOU WIN

W16 · 2025 · S TIER

86%

WON BY 2

ONE FREE PICK. EVERY WEEK.

Our highest-confidence play of the week, in your inbox before kickoff. One email, just the pick.

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6 SEASONS ON RECORD

FULL SEASON REVIEW →

2020

172-83-1

67.5%

2021

170-101-1

62.7%

2022

178-91-2

66.2%

2023

176-96

64.7%

2024

189-83

69.5%

2025

185-86-1

68.3%

WHAT IS NOPUNT?

THE MODEL BEHIND THE PICKS

THE MODEL

NoPunt is an NFL prediction platform. The model reads 24 engineered features: exponentially-weighted team form (point differential, turnover margin, success rates, win rate, defensive pass EPA), an Elo differential, venue-specific home field, rest and bye structure, and injury-weighted availability. The higher the model's conviction on a game, the higher its confidence tier. It covers every regular-season game, grading each pick S through C so you know where the real edges are.

THE LEDGER

What separates NoPunt from every other picks account: a public ledger. Every loss stays on the record. No deleted tweets, no edited screenshots, no retroactive claims. The 2020-2025 rows are a walk-forward backtest reconstructed in May 2026, and live picks are timestamped before kickoff from Week 1 2026. The distinction is on the record too. Beyond game picks, NoPunt provides weekly player prop projections, same-game parlay correlation data, over/under totals, PPR fantasy rankings, and full-season outlooks, all driven by the same underlying model and updated every week of the season.